MARKET REPORT

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April was a bumpy ride for all markets worldwide and coffee futures were no different. With the announcement of reciprocal tariffs in the US early in the month, the market was sent into free fall to it’s low of 323.90c/lb. Despite the world knowing that the tariffs were incoming, nobody knew to what extent they would be applied across products such as coffee, considering the low production capabilities on US soil.

While these reciprocal tariffs were in place for the first few days, there was some welcomed relief in the markets when the announcement that the US would enforce a blanket 10% across most countries and delay the reciprocal tariffs for some time (apart from China). This saw a strong rally in coffee prices for the following 15 trading days where the C topped out at 418.90c/lb on the 29th of the month. A considerable range 95c/lb across the entire month.

Observing the candlestick chart below, there is clear evidence of heightened volatility. In each candle we can see the opening level, closing level, direction, and range of the day. The green candles show that the day closed higher than the open. The red candles show the day closed lower than the open. The vertical line up the middle of the candles (the wick) is the range of trading during the day. During May it wasn’t uncommon to see a huge 20c/lb range during trading hours.

Arabica NY C Graph 

On the Australian Dollar front, there were similar levels of volatility impacting the price of green for Australian roasters. News about reciprocal tariffs on Australia’s largest trading partner, China, plummeted the AUD to monthly lows of 1AUD = 0.59493USD. This, like the coffee market, saw a strong turn around in the latter half of the month due to a weakening USD that saw us finish the month hovering around the 1AUD = 0.64USD mark.

With little news about weather in Brazil over the past couple of weeks, one could assume a level of optimism in the conditions for the upcoming harvest. Several trade houses have begun releasing crop projections for Brazil, with most estimates falling between 60 and 65 million 60kg bags. While a decline in Arabica production is anticipated, record-high Conilon yields are expected to help offset some of the shortfall. As we head into the winter months in Brazil, all eyes are on harvesting, quality and more importantly weather forecasts. There is little knowing what the next couple of months bring when it comes to the weather, but most people in the trade expect to see continued volatility regardless of how positive conditions are for producing coffee.

SPECIALTY COFFEE ASSOCIATION (SCA) EXPO - UPDATE

Over the long weekend, members of the Bennetts team made their way to Houston, Texas, to take part in the annual Specialty Coffee Association (SCA) Expo—one of the coffee industry's biggest events.

This global gathering continues to offer an incredible platform to connect with our supply partners, learn from innovators across the trade, and stay at the forefront of industry developments. From conversations around climate resilience and technology in traceability, to the ever-changing market and evolving consumer preferences, the Expo was a timely reminder of just how fast our industry is moving.

It was especially valuable to spend time with our long-term partners from origin, many of whom travelled great distances to attend. Reconnecting face-to-face and exploring new ideas together helped reinforce the strength of our shared values and ongoing commitments.

Stay tuned for our full Expo recap in the coming weeks, where we’ll dive deeper into the key insights and discussions shaping the future of coffee.